A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
